Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 0.008494 0.009575 0.010760 0.012157 0.013764 0.015558 0.017720
2024-12-22 0.006510 0.007902 0.009560 0.011695 0.014386 0.017691 0.022093
2024-12-29 0.005570 0.007097 0.009021 0.011646 0.015173 0.019801 0.026421
2025-01-05 0.005130 0.006805 0.009016 0.012187 0.016685 0.022938 0.032468
2025-01-12 0.004478 0.006132 0.008396 0.011774 0.016781 0.024076 0.035793
2025-01-19 0.003987 0.005612 0.007910 0.011461 0.016935 0.025259 0.039284
2025-01-26 0.003664 0.005292 0.007664 0.011453 0.017513 0.027112 0.044052
2025-02-02 0.003523 0.005220 0.007766 0.011970 0.018952 0.030481 0.051824
2025-02-09 0.003270 0.004950 0.007535 0.011927 0.019460 0.032353 0.057246
2025-02-16 0.003087 0.004770 0.007424 0.012058 0.020261 0.034809 0.064093
2025-02-23 0.002865 0.004508 0.007154 0.011888 0.020505 0.036282 0.069260
2025-03-02 0.002721 0.004360 0.007056 0.012000 0.021262 0.038783 0.076867
2025-03-09 0.002546 0.004154 0.006858 0.011939 0.021738 0.040903 0.084275
2025-03-16 0.002318 0.003842 0.006451 0.011462 0.021372 0.041330 0.088141
2025-03-23 0.002182 0.003676 0.006286 0.011416 0.021843 0.043525 0.096416
2025-03-30 0.002140 0.003674 0.006415 0.011945 0.023542 0.048562 0.112449
2025-04-06 0.001976 0.003436 0.006089 0.011541 0.023234 0.049141 0.117531
2025-04-13 0.001839 0.003240 0.005825 0.011235 0.023101 0.050092 0.123769
2025-04-20 0.001750 0.003127 0.005711 0.011226 0.023620 0.052640 0.134835
2025-04-27 0.001728 0.003138 0.005835 0.011732 0.025367 0.058418 0.156284
2025-05-04 0.001646 0.003028 0.005712 0.011690 0.025830 0.061065 0.169203
2025-05-11 0.001588 0.002960 0.005669 0.011818 0.026715 0.064934 0.186801
2025-05-18 0.001506 0.002837 0.005502 0.011652 0.026853 0.066836 0.198581